Adrian Tolson

Last updated on 2017-01-18T03:07+0300.

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Adrian Tolson said : “The economies of the world will be in recession, if not depression, for likely the balance of this year. This will damage international trade, shipping and bunkering,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 23, 2020 2:26:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “I see in the ARA [Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp] that the bulk/wholesale spread VLSFO to HSFO is only [around] $75/mt. While it stays at these low levels I would not anticipate any high demand for scrubber installation,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 23, 2020 2:26:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “The net impact of all this has made HSFO relatively scarce … that is not to say it is not available and oversupplied but not as much as anticipated,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 23, 2020 2:26:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “The first time I heard that VLSFO’s often made from straight run fuel or VGO’s that are paraffinic and not aromatic in nature, would supposedly create a black carbon problem, I thought this made no sense,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 23, 2020 2:26:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “I guess you could put a blend together that meets a 0.5% spec using high carbon cutterstocks but then you would miss specifications on so many other parameters,” “It may be that down the road we will try and limit the black carbon, or carbon content, of bunker fuels. But I think the fuels we are burning today are much better for the environment, excluding the discussion on CO2, than the fuels we burned in 2019,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 23, 2020 2:26:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “Retrofitting a scrubber on a 18,000 TEU containership at that point had payback of 1.5 years…at today’s prices maybe this is 2.5 years. So for a big ship [large container, VLCC and Capesize] it all makes sense,” “Anything below this size…maybe you think twice or decide not to do it” External link

hellenicshippingnews Thursday, March 12, 2020 2:23:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “Obviously the potential for voyage savings depends greatly on the optimisation methods used and the nature of the vessel and voyage,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Thursday, February 13, 2020 1:28:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson observed : “For the time being, the VLSFO to MGO discount has vanished in Singapore with both bunker fuels currently sold at around $700 pmt. With such a price convergence, the apparent advantage of VLSFO goes out the window,” External link

seatrade-global Thursday, February 6, 2020 6:35:00 PM EAT

Adrian Tolson observed : “For the time being, the VLSFO to MGO discount has vanished in Singapore with both bunker fuels currently sold at around $700 pmt. With such a price convergence, the apparent advantage of VLSFO goes out the window,” External link

seatrade-global Tuesday, January 7, 2020 10:00:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson says : “Some LSFO will be directly produced at a refiner while others will be blended with different components. Each choice will give a different type of cost basis; often it’s an opportunity cost. ‘What is the value of that component being blended or diverted into LSFO production in other markets or other refinery processes?’” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, December 16, 2019 1:43:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson adds : “They will not care about the scrubber bunker market, which honestly will be easily satisfied with less than 20% of current global HSFO production,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, December 16, 2019 1:43:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “The market will be taken over by a new set of suppliers. On the physical side it will be refiners and major oil companies and there’s no way they will be extending credit up and down the supply chain to every ship owner,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Thursday, July 25, 2019 12:46:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “The 2020 HSFO carriage ban, MEPC’s [Marine Environment Protection Committee’s] recent meeting in May and a growing awareness of the high risks of non-compliance have largely changed views on estimates,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Thursday, July 18, 2019 12:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “I expect some suppliers and traders to disappear….or to be greatly reduced in size….you can expect to see some suppliers just becoming logistics providers (barging company etc.)…access to oil and credit are the factors impacting consolidation,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Wednesday, March 27, 2019 1:17:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson told : “I think the scrubber argument is still very positive and if I was able to lock in future good quality HSFO supply and had a big enough ship trading in international [no Emission Control Area] waters, then I would install a scrubber as soon as possible,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “We know they will not be available at all ports….but we also need to assume that the wholesale to retail margin will be much higher post 2020. Maintaining segregated systems [tanks and barges] and carrying inventory always comes at a cost and given the relatively small demand, there will be an increase in HSFO margins,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “We still live in a situation where we have no certainty as to overall demand of post 2020 fuels and the location of this demand,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “One area I see potential problems is with refiners who are happily committed by producing VLSFO and have a price target versus diesel in mind,” “Another supplier with a 0.5% fuel oil comes along having a different and cheaper price idea and this makes the first supplier totally uncompetitive. As a result, his demand disappears and he cancels future VSLFO supply plans,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “From 2020 onwards this [MGO-HSFO price] spread is really one of the most interesting questions,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “I think [closer to 2020] it [MGO-HSGO price differential] will remain in the $150-$250/mt range as it has for the last few months. HSFO for the front months has been pretty strong due to limited availability. At some point HSFO will start to drop and the gap with MGO will open up. I am guessing by the end of Q4 we will be seeing numbers close to $350 or even $400/mt,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “We should not be ignoring issues with the potential for problems with MGO on vessels. Higher volumes may produce some unwise blends of distillates and we will likely see these quality issues increase,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “Will it be there and will it be strong enough to get high compliance? I think it will, but I see it as a bit like a patchwork blanket sewn together. I hope there are not too many holes in the blanket,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson commented : “While everyone may want to know the spread between HSFO and 0.5% (fuel), I would argue this is the most difficult to predict,” External link

seatrade-global Monday, February 25, 2019 6:42:00 AM EAT



Key Titles and Phrases Count Lang Last Seen
consultant100.00%EN01/17/201717/01/2017
Names Lang Count
Adrian TolsonEN100.00%


 
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Adrian Tolson

Last updated on 2017-01-18T03:07+0300.

About this image

sign

Quotes... Extracted quotes from

Adrian Tolson said : “The economies of the world will be in recession, if not depression, for likely the balance of this year. This will damage international trade, shipping and bunkering,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 23, 2020 2:26:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “I see in the ARA [Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp] that the bulk/wholesale spread VLSFO to HSFO is only [around] $75/mt. While it stays at these low levels I would not anticipate any high demand for scrubber installation,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 23, 2020 2:26:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “The net impact of all this has made HSFO relatively scarce … that is not to say it is not available and oversupplied but not as much as anticipated,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 23, 2020 2:26:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “The first time I heard that VLSFO’s often made from straight run fuel or VGO’s that are paraffinic and not aromatic in nature, would supposedly create a black carbon problem, I thought this made no sense,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 23, 2020 2:26:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “I guess you could put a blend together that meets a 0.5% spec using high carbon cutterstocks but then you would miss specifications on so many other parameters,” “It may be that down the road we will try and limit the black carbon, or carbon content, of bunker fuels. But I think the fuels we are burning today are much better for the environment, excluding the discussion on CO2, than the fuels we burned in 2019,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 23, 2020 2:26:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “Retrofitting a scrubber on a 18,000 TEU containership at that point had payback of 1.5 years…at today’s prices maybe this is 2.5 years. So for a big ship [large container, VLCC and Capesize] it all makes sense,” “Anything below this size…maybe you think twice or decide not to do it” External link

hellenicshippingnews Thursday, March 12, 2020 2:23:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “Obviously the potential for voyage savings depends greatly on the optimisation methods used and the nature of the vessel and voyage,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Thursday, February 13, 2020 1:28:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson observed : “For the time being, the VLSFO to MGO discount has vanished in Singapore with both bunker fuels currently sold at around $700 pmt. With such a price convergence, the apparent advantage of VLSFO goes out the window,” External link

seatrade-global Thursday, February 6, 2020 6:35:00 PM EAT

Adrian Tolson observed : “For the time being, the VLSFO to MGO discount has vanished in Singapore with both bunker fuels currently sold at around $700 pmt. With such a price convergence, the apparent advantage of VLSFO goes out the window,” External link

seatrade-global Tuesday, January 7, 2020 10:00:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson says : “Some LSFO will be directly produced at a refiner while others will be blended with different components. Each choice will give a different type of cost basis; often it’s an opportunity cost. ‘What is the value of that component being blended or diverted into LSFO production in other markets or other refinery processes?’” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, December 16, 2019 1:43:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson adds : “They will not care about the scrubber bunker market, which honestly will be easily satisfied with less than 20% of current global HSFO production,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, December 16, 2019 1:43:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “The market will be taken over by a new set of suppliers. On the physical side it will be refiners and major oil companies and there’s no way they will be extending credit up and down the supply chain to every ship owner,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Thursday, July 25, 2019 12:46:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “The 2020 HSFO carriage ban, MEPC’s [Marine Environment Protection Committee’s] recent meeting in May and a growing awareness of the high risks of non-compliance have largely changed views on estimates,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Thursday, July 18, 2019 12:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “I expect some suppliers and traders to disappear….or to be greatly reduced in size….you can expect to see some suppliers just becoming logistics providers (barging company etc.)…access to oil and credit are the factors impacting consolidation,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Wednesday, March 27, 2019 1:17:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson told : “I think the scrubber argument is still very positive and if I was able to lock in future good quality HSFO supply and had a big enough ship trading in international [no Emission Control Area] waters, then I would install a scrubber as soon as possible,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “We know they will not be available at all ports….but we also need to assume that the wholesale to retail margin will be much higher post 2020. Maintaining segregated systems [tanks and barges] and carrying inventory always comes at a cost and given the relatively small demand, there will be an increase in HSFO margins,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “We still live in a situation where we have no certainty as to overall demand of post 2020 fuels and the location of this demand,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “One area I see potential problems is with refiners who are happily committed by producing VLSFO and have a price target versus diesel in mind,” “Another supplier with a 0.5% fuel oil comes along having a different and cheaper price idea and this makes the first supplier totally uncompetitive. As a result, his demand disappears and he cancels future VSLFO supply plans,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “From 2020 onwards this [MGO-HSFO price] spread is really one of the most interesting questions,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “I think [closer to 2020] it [MGO-HSGO price differential] will remain in the $150-$250/mt range as it has for the last few months. HSFO for the front months has been pretty strong due to limited availability. At some point HSFO will start to drop and the gap with MGO will open up. I am guessing by the end of Q4 we will be seeing numbers close to $350 or even $400/mt,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “We should not be ignoring issues with the potential for problems with MGO on vessels. Higher volumes may produce some unwise blends of distillates and we will likely see these quality issues increase,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson said : “Will it be there and will it be strong enough to get high compliance? I think it will, but I see it as a bit like a patchwork blanket sewn together. I hope there are not too many holes in the blanket,” External link

hellenicshippingnews Monday, March 25, 2019 1:38:00 AM EAT

Adrian Tolson commented : “While everyone may want to know the spread between HSFO and 0.5% (fuel), I would argue this is the most difficult to predict,” External link

seatrade-global Monday, February 25, 2019 6:42:00 AM EAT



Key Titles and Phrases Count Lang Last Seen
consultant100.00%EN01/17/201717/01/2017
Names Lang Count
Adrian TolsonEN100.00%


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