Nate Silver

Last updated on 2017-07-22T21:06+0300.

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Nate Silver estimates : "Extrapolating out from current vote totals, I project Biden winning the popular vote by 4.3 percentage points and getting 81.8 million votes to President Trump's 74.9 million, with a turnout of around 160 million" External link

opednews Friday, November 13, 2020 7:34:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Joseph Biden ) : “I don’t know, I guess I’d say that Biden will win Arizona if you forced me to pick, but I sure as heck don’t think the state should have been called by anyone, and I think the calls that were previously made should be retracted now,” External link

theepochtimes Thursday, November 12, 2020 3:08:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Joseph Biden ) : “I don’t know, I guess I’d say that Biden will win Arizona if you forced me to pick, but I sure as heck don’t think the state should have been called by anyone, and I think the calls that were previously made should be retracted now,” External link

theepochtimes Wednesday, November 11, 2020 12:48:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Joseph Biden ) : “I don’t know, I guess I’d say that Biden will win Arizona if you forced me to pick, but I sure as heck don’t think the state should have been called by anyone, and I think the calls that were previously made should be retracted now,” External link

theepochtimes Tuesday, November 10, 2020 11:04:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver noted : “Democrats are 3-0 this century when they have a Black person on the ticket, and 0-3 when they don’t” External link

msn-uk Tuesday, November 10, 2020 3:51:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : “I have been an optimist on the Trump comeback in Arizona [but] that was really bad news for Trump,” External link

nypost Friday, November 6, 2020 11:44:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : “We are here to provide guidance on how accurate the polls might or might not be, and the whole premise of why Joe Biden could withstand a 2016-style polling error or a bit larger,” External link

foxnews Friday, November 6, 2020 7:25:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : “I think in the light of day, it's going to be a mediocre year for the polls but one where directionally they correctly pointed towards Biden's win in key states once all votes are counted and called,” External link

wkbw Friday, November 6, 2020 8:35:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said : “If you’re coming after Five­ThirtyEight,” External link

WashingtonPost Friday, November 6, 2020 4:44:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “I don’t know, I guess I’d say that Biden will win Arizona if you forced me to pick, but I sure as heck don’t think the state should have been called by anyone, and I think the calls that were previously made should be retracted now,” External link

theepochtimes Thursday, November 5, 2020 6:55:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Joseph Biden ) : “Without Pennsylvania, Biden does have some paths to victory, but there’s no one alternative state he can feel especially secure about,” External link

news-yahoo Thursday, November 5, 2020 6:08:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said : "Don't want to stir things up 'too' much but it seems like if a forecast says that Biden is favored because he could survive a 2016-style (~3 point) polling error when Clinton couldn't, and you get that polling error and he indeed (probably) survives, it was fairly informative?" "I think that's probably what we're going to wind up with once all votes are counted," External link

afp-en Thursday, November 5, 2020 1:53:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said ( about Joseph Biden ) : “Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin,” External link

ibtimes Wednesday, November 4, 2020 6:37:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : "And indeed — although nobody needs any reminders of this after 2016 — Trump can win," External link

patch Wednesday, November 4, 2020 3:13:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Electoral College ) : "If Biden wins the popular vote by 2 to 3 percentage points, the Electoral College is roughly a toss-up," External link

patch Wednesday, November 4, 2020 3:13:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Donald Trump ) : "And indeed — although nobody needs any reminders of this after 2016 — Trump can win," External link

patch Tuesday, November 3, 2020 5:27:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Electoral College ) : "If Biden wins the popular vote by 2 to 3 percentage points, the Electoral College is roughly a toss-up," External link

patch Tuesday, November 3, 2020 5:27:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver writes : “That doesn’t mean there isn’t still a path for Trump,” “Trump might be the underdog, and he needs a big polling error in his favor, but bigger polling errors have happened in the past” External link

news-yahoo Tuesday, November 3, 2020 2:54:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. Projected margins in the tipping-point states are considerably tighter than the margins in the national popular vote. More specifically, Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania — the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast — is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average,” External link

clubofmozambique Tuesday, November 3, 2020 10:19:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. Projected margins in the tipping-point states are considerably tighter than the margins in the national popular vote. More specifically, Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average,” External link

HindustanTimes Tuesday, November 3, 2020 6:11:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said ( about Joseph Biden ) : “Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn't quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options,” External link

independent-UK Tuesday, November 3, 2020 12:23:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College . Projected margins in the tipping-point states are considerably tighter than the margins in the national popular vote. More specifically, Joe Biden's lead in Pennsylvania — the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast — is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average,” External link

timesofindia Monday, November 2, 2020 9:48:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver adds ( about Joseph Biden ) : “Without Pennsylvania, Biden does have some paths to victory, but there’s no one alternative state he can feel especially secure about,” External link

forbes Monday, November 2, 2020 6:05:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver reported : “it’s expected that as much as 80% of the vote there can be announced shortly after polls close” External link

baltimore-cbslocal Friday, October 30, 2020 9:31:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models (it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong), political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the DunningKruger effect,” External link

washtimes Friday, October 30, 2020 3:36:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

citynews-ca Monday, October 26, 2020 7:06:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

TorontoStar Monday, October 26, 2020 4:54:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

beaumontenterprise Sunday, October 25, 2020 11:23:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

messenger-inquirer Sunday, October 25, 2020 8:33:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

siouxcityjournal Sunday, October 25, 2020 1:04:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

eagletribune Sunday, October 25, 2020 12:50:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

missoulian Sunday, October 25, 2020 12:36:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

whig Sunday, October 25, 2020 12:16:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

nbcbayarea Sunday, October 25, 2020 12:06:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

wftv Saturday, October 24, 2020 11:58:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : "We think people should have been better prepared for it," External link

telegram Saturday, October 24, 2020 10:26:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

boston Saturday, October 24, 2020 8:14:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

orlandosentinel Saturday, October 24, 2020 6:32:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

nbcnewyork Saturday, October 24, 2020 5:50:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

nbcdfw Saturday, October 24, 2020 5:02:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

siouxcityjournal Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:50:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

nbcbayarea Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:49:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

wacotrib Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:49:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

eagletribune Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:41:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

gazette Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:37:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

whig Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:36:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

kiro7 Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:08:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : "We think people should have been better prepared for it," External link

startribune Saturday, October 24, 2020 3:53:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

therepublic Saturday, October 24, 2020 3:45:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Joseph Biden ) : “Folks, Biden's lead didn't shrink from 7.3 points to 3.6 points in PA in a week (as per [RealClearPolitics]) at the same time it was steady or slightly growing nationally,” External link

forbes Wednesday, October 21, 2020 10:30:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : “Republicans could make up for that with a big turnout on Nov. 3 since 60% of them plan to cast a ballot on Election Day,” “That should make the margin a lot closer. Though keep in mind that (President) Donald Trump significantly trails (Democratic nominee) Joe Biden in national polls” External link

news-yahoo Wednesday, October 21, 2020 7:05:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said ( about Joseph Biden ) : "Biden is winning back some of the Obama-Trump white working-class voters who flocked to Trump four years ago," External link

news-yahoo Thursday, October 1, 2020 11:46:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "Biden is only truly safe to win the Electoral College once he has a popular vote margin of 5 points or more. But, he’s a fairly heavy favorite with a 3- to 5-point margin, and has roughly break-even odds with a 2- to 3-point margin," External link

news-yahoo Thursday, October 1, 2020 11:46:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said ( about Joseph Biden ) : "Biden is winning back some of the Obama-Trump white working-class voters who flocked to Trump four years ago," External link

usaToday Thursday, October 1, 2020 11:13:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "Biden is only truly safe to win the Electoral College once he has a popular vote margin of 5 points or more. But, he’s a fairly heavy favorite with a 3- to 5-point margin, and has roughly break-even odds with a 2- to 3-point margin," External link

usaToday Thursday, October 1, 2020 11:13:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “In a race with many polls, any one poll should rarely make all that much news. But you shouldn’t ‘throw out’ the poll either,” External link

bangordailynews Thursday, September 17, 2020 1:30:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “Polls were never as good as the media assumed they were before 2016 — and they aren’t nearly as bad as the media seems to assume they are now,” External link

nytimes Wednesday, September 9, 2020 3:28:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said : "Is the race tightening? I don't know," External link

news-yahoo Monday, August 17, 2020 9:35:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : "Furthermore, there are some reasons to think the election will tighten, and President Trump is likely to have an advantage in a close election because of the Electoral College”. Analysts say that Trump could potentially lose the national popular vote by 4 points and still win the Electoral College in November. Biden has an 81 percent chance of winning the popular vote, compared to only a 71 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. However, the FiveThirtyEight model gives Biden a 30 percent chance of winning the popular vote by double-digits. Biden's calculated chance of victory is exactly the same as FiveThirtyEight reported Election Day in 2016, when the news source said that Democrat had a 71 percent chance of winning. At the time, the data journalism website was criticized for giving Trump too great a chance of victory. The New York Times model gave Clinton a 99 percent chance of victory on Election Day. But Trump ran the table in the traditional battleground states, where polling was close, and depressed Democratic turnout in the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin helped Trump to win narrow victories. Trump ultimately won the Electoral College, despite losing the popular vote by millions of votes. “The uncertainty in our current 2020 forecast, conversely, stems mostly from the fact that there’s still a long way to go until the election," External link

thehill Wednesday, August 12, 2020 7:27:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "We found historically when there are lots of major news events and economic disruptions, an election becomes harder to predict," "So while he's clearly in trouble, I do not buy that Trump's fate is sealed," External link

sinacom-en Tuesday, July 28, 2020 6:54:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said : "We found historically when there are lots of major news events and economic disruptions, an election becomes harder to predict," "So while he's clearly in trouble, I do not buy that Trump's fate is sealed," External link

xinhuanet_en Monday, July 27, 2020 2:56:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "There are a lot of unknowns. It's probably too optimistic to expect major progress on a vaccine by November, but you never know. And people's behavior around issues like masks can change. So how do you account for this in an election model? Basically, you add more uncertainty," External link

washingtonexaminer Sunday, July 26, 2020 8:08:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : "Biden also leads Trump in swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona - although his lead in many swing states are not as wide as his margin in national polls, suggesting that the Electoral College could once again favour Trump in the event of a close election," External link

straitstimesSG Thursday, June 25, 2020 12:16:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : "While a Biden landslide is possible if he wins all these swing states, so is a Trump Electoral College victory, depending on which way the race moves between now and November" External link

straitstimesSG Thursday, June 25, 2020 12:16:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver told : “Trump can absolutely win the election. But he definitely has some work to do,” External link

washtimes Wednesday, June 24, 2020 5:29:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver observed ( about President Trump ) : "So Trump needs to make a comeback. Again, there's plenty of time for that and maybe also get some help from the electoral college," External link

foxnews Tuesday, June 23, 2020 4:10:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver explained ( about President Trump ) : "So for the time being, no, I don't buy that we're going to have the exact same map as we did in 2016," "Instead, Trump is fighting a two-front war with problems in the Midwest on one hand and Arizona and Florida on the other hand" External link

foxnews Tuesday, June 23, 2020 4:10:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said ( about error ) : “Not providing context on the increase in testing is such a basic error, and has been so widespread, that it's revealing about the media's goals. It's more interested in telling plausibly-true stories ("narratives") that sound smart to its audience than in accuracy/truth per se,” External link

foxnews Friday, May 8, 2020 8:02:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver added : “That doesn't mean it's just making stuff up or engaging in fake news,” “On the contrary, the facts it relays are generally accurate in isolation. But the problems are in how facts are strung together and emphasized. Often there are sins of omission (e.g. no context on testing)” External link

foxnews Friday, May 8, 2020 8:02:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "Projecting 200K new detected cases each day by the end of the month from a current baseline of 30K is also a lot, even with quite pessimistic assumptions," "I would encourage some caution with taking these at face value" External link

qt Tuesday, May 5, 2020 5:35:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Donald Trump ) : "This seems important and suggests that a lot of Trump's approval bounce comes from Dems and indies who are trying to express sympathy at a time of national crisis but have no intention of voting for him," External link

news-yahoo Sunday, March 29, 2020 7:38:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Donald Trump ) : "This seems important and suggests that a lot of Trump's approval bounce comes from Dems and indies who are trying to express sympathy at a time of national crisis but have no intention of voting for him," External link

usaToday Sunday, March 29, 2020 5:53:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Donald Trump ) : "This seems important and suggests that a lot of Trump's approval bounce comes from Dems and indies who are trying to express sympathy at a time of national crisis but have no intention of voting for him," External link

news-yahoo Sunday, March 29, 2020 5:45:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “Sanders has to hope that the polls are quite wrong,” External link

thehill Tuesday, March 10, 2020 9:36:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : “It doesn’t seem great for Sanders’ electability narrative that turnout seems to be increasing more in states where he isn’t doing as well,” External link

sundaytimes Saturday, March 7, 2020 10:35:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "I don’t have any sense that there’s any permanent damage to our business there, and as I’ve said before, we accept the consequences of our system and our values," External link

usaToday Friday, March 6, 2020 4:00:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said ( about Joseph Biden ) : “Former Vice President Joe Biden’s majority chances were unchanged,” External link

independent-UK Monday, March 2, 2020 8:59:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver writes : "So we'd encourage you to take the model with a large grain of salt until some of that post-New Hampshire polling comes in," External link

news-yahoo Thursday, February 13, 2020 2:29:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver writes : "So we'd encourage you to take the model with a large grain of salt until some of that post-New Hampshire polling comes in," External link

news-yahoo Wednesday, February 12, 2020 9:27:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver says : “In some simulations, the model treats Mr Bloomberg’s enormous spending as a relatively important factor in the race, and in other simulations, it gives it very little weight,” “This reflects the fact that the evidence is quite mixed on how self-financed candidates do as compared with candidates who raise money from individual donors” External link

independent-UK Wednesday, February 12, 2020 5:53:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver admitted : “My take on Biden is that 4th place is bad,” “There are no good scenarios when three candidates finish ahead of you. However, he’s been pretty resilient to setbacks so far and given his position in national polls he has a fair bit of runway (NH, NV, SC) to make a comeback. To put it another way, while from an actuarial perspective Biden’s chances of winning the nomination have substantially decreased, he still ‘controls his own destiny.’ If there’s a Biden coalition out there, he ought to be capable of finding it in one of the next 3 states” External link

thenation Wednesday, February 5, 2020 6:57:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "Not everything I tweet is meant to be taken literally; a lot is sarcastic, contextual, trollish, etc., or is spitballing ideas in real-time," "But I can't really expect you all to know which things are in which categories. So think I need to stick to more literal-minded tweets" External link

foxnews Tuesday, October 29, 2019 3:43:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver écrit ( about Hillary Rodham Clinton ) : «Je ne sais pas si j’ai besoin de vous le dire, mais Hillary Clinton sera probablement la prochaine présidente» External link

lactualite Friday, October 21, 2016 2:55:00 AM EAT



Key Titles and Phrases Count Lang Last Seen
forecaster22.63%EN10/29/201729/10/2017
analyst14.40%EN07/19/201719/07/2017
journalist13.17%EN06/15/201715/06/2017
founder7.41%EN06/15/201715/06/2017
editor13.99%EN04/24/201724/04/2017
analista2.88%PT02/02/201702/02/2017
political analyst2.88%EN12/17/201617/12/2016
expert4.12%EN12/16/201616/12/2016
political forecaster1.23%EN11/12/201612/11/2016
star1.23%FR11/09/201609/11/2016
patron0.82%FR11/09/201609/11/2016
journaliste0.41%FR11/09/201609/11/2016
famous journalist0.41%EN11/09/201609/11/2016
editor in chief2.06%EN11/07/201607/11/2016
chief1.23%EN11/07/201607/11/2016
auteur0.82%FR11/07/201607/11/2016
autor0.41%PT11/06/201606/11/2016
head0.41%EN11/02/201602/11/2016
especialista0.82%PT10/21/201621/10/2016
editor0.41%ES10/14/201614/10/2016
rédacteur en chef0.41%FR10/12/201612/10/2016
grand maître0.41%FR10/01/201601/10/2016
politologue0.41%FR09/27/201627/09/2016
colleague0.82%EN08/08/201608/08/2016
designer0.41%EN07/18/201618/07/2016
vedette4.53%FR08/21/201321/08/2013
genio1.23%ES12/13/201213/12/2012
Names Lang Count
Nate SilverEN66.67%
Nate SilverFR14.11%
Nate SilverPT10.48%
Nate SilverES4.17%
Nate SilverDA4.03%
Nate SilversEN0.34%
Nate SilverPL0.13%
Nate SilverSW0.07%


 
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AfricaBrief

Nate Silver

Last updated on 2017-07-22T21:06+0300.

About this image

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Quotes... Extracted quotes from

Nate Silver estimates : "Extrapolating out from current vote totals, I project Biden winning the popular vote by 4.3 percentage points and getting 81.8 million votes to President Trump's 74.9 million, with a turnout of around 160 million" External link

opednews Friday, November 13, 2020 7:34:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Joseph Biden ) : “I don’t know, I guess I’d say that Biden will win Arizona if you forced me to pick, but I sure as heck don’t think the state should have been called by anyone, and I think the calls that were previously made should be retracted now,” External link

theepochtimes Thursday, November 12, 2020 3:08:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Joseph Biden ) : “I don’t know, I guess I’d say that Biden will win Arizona if you forced me to pick, but I sure as heck don’t think the state should have been called by anyone, and I think the calls that were previously made should be retracted now,” External link

theepochtimes Wednesday, November 11, 2020 12:48:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Joseph Biden ) : “I don’t know, I guess I’d say that Biden will win Arizona if you forced me to pick, but I sure as heck don’t think the state should have been called by anyone, and I think the calls that were previously made should be retracted now,” External link

theepochtimes Tuesday, November 10, 2020 11:04:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver noted : “Democrats are 3-0 this century when they have a Black person on the ticket, and 0-3 when they don’t” External link

msn-uk Tuesday, November 10, 2020 3:51:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : “I have been an optimist on the Trump comeback in Arizona [but] that was really bad news for Trump,” External link

nypost Friday, November 6, 2020 11:44:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : “We are here to provide guidance on how accurate the polls might or might not be, and the whole premise of why Joe Biden could withstand a 2016-style polling error or a bit larger,” External link

foxnews Friday, November 6, 2020 7:25:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : “I think in the light of day, it's going to be a mediocre year for the polls but one where directionally they correctly pointed towards Biden's win in key states once all votes are counted and called,” External link

wkbw Friday, November 6, 2020 8:35:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said : “If you’re coming after Five­ThirtyEight,” External link

WashingtonPost Friday, November 6, 2020 4:44:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “I don’t know, I guess I’d say that Biden will win Arizona if you forced me to pick, but I sure as heck don’t think the state should have been called by anyone, and I think the calls that were previously made should be retracted now,” External link

theepochtimes Thursday, November 5, 2020 6:55:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Joseph Biden ) : “Without Pennsylvania, Biden does have some paths to victory, but there’s no one alternative state he can feel especially secure about,” External link

news-yahoo Thursday, November 5, 2020 6:08:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said : "Don't want to stir things up 'too' much but it seems like if a forecast says that Biden is favored because he could survive a 2016-style (~3 point) polling error when Clinton couldn't, and you get that polling error and he indeed (probably) survives, it was fairly informative?" "I think that's probably what we're going to wind up with once all votes are counted," External link

afp-en Thursday, November 5, 2020 1:53:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said ( about Joseph Biden ) : “Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin,” External link

ibtimes Wednesday, November 4, 2020 6:37:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : "And indeed — although nobody needs any reminders of this after 2016 — Trump can win," External link

patch Wednesday, November 4, 2020 3:13:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Electoral College ) : "If Biden wins the popular vote by 2 to 3 percentage points, the Electoral College is roughly a toss-up," External link

patch Wednesday, November 4, 2020 3:13:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Donald Trump ) : "And indeed — although nobody needs any reminders of this after 2016 — Trump can win," External link

patch Tuesday, November 3, 2020 5:27:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Electoral College ) : "If Biden wins the popular vote by 2 to 3 percentage points, the Electoral College is roughly a toss-up," External link

patch Tuesday, November 3, 2020 5:27:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver writes : “That doesn’t mean there isn’t still a path for Trump,” “Trump might be the underdog, and he needs a big polling error in his favor, but bigger polling errors have happened in the past” External link

news-yahoo Tuesday, November 3, 2020 2:54:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. Projected margins in the tipping-point states are considerably tighter than the margins in the national popular vote. More specifically, Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania — the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast — is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average,” External link

clubofmozambique Tuesday, November 3, 2020 10:19:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. Projected margins in the tipping-point states are considerably tighter than the margins in the national popular vote. More specifically, Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average,” External link

HindustanTimes Tuesday, November 3, 2020 6:11:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said ( about Joseph Biden ) : “Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn't quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options,” External link

independent-UK Tuesday, November 3, 2020 12:23:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College . Projected margins in the tipping-point states are considerably tighter than the margins in the national popular vote. More specifically, Joe Biden's lead in Pennsylvania — the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast — is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average,” External link

timesofindia Monday, November 2, 2020 9:48:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver adds ( about Joseph Biden ) : “Without Pennsylvania, Biden does have some paths to victory, but there’s no one alternative state he can feel especially secure about,” External link

forbes Monday, November 2, 2020 6:05:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver reported : “it’s expected that as much as 80% of the vote there can be announced shortly after polls close” External link

baltimore-cbslocal Friday, October 30, 2020 9:31:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models (it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong), political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the DunningKruger effect,” External link

washtimes Friday, October 30, 2020 3:36:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

citynews-ca Monday, October 26, 2020 7:06:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

TorontoStar Monday, October 26, 2020 4:54:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

beaumontenterprise Sunday, October 25, 2020 11:23:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

messenger-inquirer Sunday, October 25, 2020 8:33:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

siouxcityjournal Sunday, October 25, 2020 1:04:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

eagletribune Sunday, October 25, 2020 12:50:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

missoulian Sunday, October 25, 2020 12:36:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

whig Sunday, October 25, 2020 12:16:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

nbcbayarea Sunday, October 25, 2020 12:06:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

wftv Saturday, October 24, 2020 11:58:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : "We think people should have been better prepared for it," External link

telegram Saturday, October 24, 2020 10:26:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

boston Saturday, October 24, 2020 8:14:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

orlandosentinel Saturday, October 24, 2020 6:32:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

nbcnewyork Saturday, October 24, 2020 5:50:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

nbcdfw Saturday, October 24, 2020 5:02:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

siouxcityjournal Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:50:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

nbcbayarea Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:49:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

wacotrib Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:49:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

eagletribune Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:41:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

gazette Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:37:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

whig Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:36:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

kiro7 Saturday, October 24, 2020 4:08:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : "We think people should have been better prepared for it," External link

startribune Saturday, October 24, 2020 3:53:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “We think people should have been better prepared for it,” External link

therepublic Saturday, October 24, 2020 3:45:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Joseph Biden ) : “Folks, Biden's lead didn't shrink from 7.3 points to 3.6 points in PA in a week (as per [RealClearPolitics]) at the same time it was steady or slightly growing nationally,” External link

forbes Wednesday, October 21, 2020 10:30:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : “Republicans could make up for that with a big turnout on Nov. 3 since 60% of them plan to cast a ballot on Election Day,” “That should make the margin a lot closer. Though keep in mind that (President) Donald Trump significantly trails (Democratic nominee) Joe Biden in national polls” External link

news-yahoo Wednesday, October 21, 2020 7:05:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said ( about Joseph Biden ) : "Biden is winning back some of the Obama-Trump white working-class voters who flocked to Trump four years ago," External link

news-yahoo Thursday, October 1, 2020 11:46:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "Biden is only truly safe to win the Electoral College once he has a popular vote margin of 5 points or more. But, he’s a fairly heavy favorite with a 3- to 5-point margin, and has roughly break-even odds with a 2- to 3-point margin," External link

news-yahoo Thursday, October 1, 2020 11:46:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said ( about Joseph Biden ) : "Biden is winning back some of the Obama-Trump white working-class voters who flocked to Trump four years ago," External link

usaToday Thursday, October 1, 2020 11:13:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "Biden is only truly safe to win the Electoral College once he has a popular vote margin of 5 points or more. But, he’s a fairly heavy favorite with a 3- to 5-point margin, and has roughly break-even odds with a 2- to 3-point margin," External link

usaToday Thursday, October 1, 2020 11:13:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “In a race with many polls, any one poll should rarely make all that much news. But you shouldn’t ‘throw out’ the poll either,” External link

bangordailynews Thursday, September 17, 2020 1:30:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “Polls were never as good as the media assumed they were before 2016 — and they aren’t nearly as bad as the media seems to assume they are now,” External link

nytimes Wednesday, September 9, 2020 3:28:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said : "Is the race tightening? I don't know," External link

news-yahoo Monday, August 17, 2020 9:35:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : "Furthermore, there are some reasons to think the election will tighten, and President Trump is likely to have an advantage in a close election because of the Electoral College”. Analysts say that Trump could potentially lose the national popular vote by 4 points and still win the Electoral College in November. Biden has an 81 percent chance of winning the popular vote, compared to only a 71 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. However, the FiveThirtyEight model gives Biden a 30 percent chance of winning the popular vote by double-digits. Biden's calculated chance of victory is exactly the same as FiveThirtyEight reported Election Day in 2016, when the news source said that Democrat had a 71 percent chance of winning. At the time, the data journalism website was criticized for giving Trump too great a chance of victory. The New York Times model gave Clinton a 99 percent chance of victory on Election Day. But Trump ran the table in the traditional battleground states, where polling was close, and depressed Democratic turnout in the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin helped Trump to win narrow victories. Trump ultimately won the Electoral College, despite losing the popular vote by millions of votes. “The uncertainty in our current 2020 forecast, conversely, stems mostly from the fact that there’s still a long way to go until the election," External link

thehill Wednesday, August 12, 2020 7:27:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "We found historically when there are lots of major news events and economic disruptions, an election becomes harder to predict," "So while he's clearly in trouble, I do not buy that Trump's fate is sealed," External link

sinacom-en Tuesday, July 28, 2020 6:54:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said : "We found historically when there are lots of major news events and economic disruptions, an election becomes harder to predict," "So while he's clearly in trouble, I do not buy that Trump's fate is sealed," External link

xinhuanet_en Monday, July 27, 2020 2:56:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "There are a lot of unknowns. It's probably too optimistic to expect major progress on a vaccine by November, but you never know. And people's behavior around issues like masks can change. So how do you account for this in an election model? Basically, you add more uncertainty," External link

washingtonexaminer Sunday, July 26, 2020 8:08:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : "Biden also leads Trump in swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona - although his lead in many swing states are not as wide as his margin in national polls, suggesting that the Electoral College could once again favour Trump in the event of a close election," External link

straitstimesSG Thursday, June 25, 2020 12:16:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : "While a Biden landslide is possible if he wins all these swing states, so is a Trump Electoral College victory, depending on which way the race moves between now and November" External link

straitstimesSG Thursday, June 25, 2020 12:16:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver told : “Trump can absolutely win the election. But he definitely has some work to do,” External link

washtimes Wednesday, June 24, 2020 5:29:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver observed ( about President Trump ) : "So Trump needs to make a comeback. Again, there's plenty of time for that and maybe also get some help from the electoral college," External link

foxnews Tuesday, June 23, 2020 4:10:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver explained ( about President Trump ) : "So for the time being, no, I don't buy that we're going to have the exact same map as we did in 2016," "Instead, Trump is fighting a two-front war with problems in the Midwest on one hand and Arizona and Florida on the other hand" External link

foxnews Tuesday, June 23, 2020 4:10:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver said ( about error ) : “Not providing context on the increase in testing is such a basic error, and has been so widespread, that it's revealing about the media's goals. It's more interested in telling plausibly-true stories ("narratives") that sound smart to its audience than in accuracy/truth per se,” External link

foxnews Friday, May 8, 2020 8:02:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver added : “That doesn't mean it's just making stuff up or engaging in fake news,” “On the contrary, the facts it relays are generally accurate in isolation. But the problems are in how facts are strung together and emphasized. Often there are sins of omission (e.g. no context on testing)” External link

foxnews Friday, May 8, 2020 8:02:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "Projecting 200K new detected cases each day by the end of the month from a current baseline of 30K is also a lot, even with quite pessimistic assumptions," "I would encourage some caution with taking these at face value" External link

qt Tuesday, May 5, 2020 5:35:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Donald Trump ) : "This seems important and suggests that a lot of Trump's approval bounce comes from Dems and indies who are trying to express sympathy at a time of national crisis but have no intention of voting for him," External link

news-yahoo Sunday, March 29, 2020 7:38:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Donald Trump ) : "This seems important and suggests that a lot of Trump's approval bounce comes from Dems and indies who are trying to express sympathy at a time of national crisis but have no intention of voting for him," External link

usaToday Sunday, March 29, 2020 5:53:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote ( about Donald Trump ) : "This seems important and suggests that a lot of Trump's approval bounce comes from Dems and indies who are trying to express sympathy at a time of national crisis but have no intention of voting for him," External link

news-yahoo Sunday, March 29, 2020 5:45:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver wrote : “Sanders has to hope that the polls are quite wrong,” External link

thehill Tuesday, March 10, 2020 9:36:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : “It doesn’t seem great for Sanders’ electability narrative that turnout seems to be increasing more in states where he isn’t doing as well,” External link

sundaytimes Saturday, March 7, 2020 10:35:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "I don’t have any sense that there’s any permanent damage to our business there, and as I’ve said before, we accept the consequences of our system and our values," External link

usaToday Friday, March 6, 2020 4:00:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said ( about Joseph Biden ) : “Former Vice President Joe Biden’s majority chances were unchanged,” External link

independent-UK Monday, March 2, 2020 8:59:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver writes : "So we'd encourage you to take the model with a large grain of salt until some of that post-New Hampshire polling comes in," External link

news-yahoo Thursday, February 13, 2020 2:29:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver writes : "So we'd encourage you to take the model with a large grain of salt until some of that post-New Hampshire polling comes in," External link

news-yahoo Wednesday, February 12, 2020 9:27:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver says : “In some simulations, the model treats Mr Bloomberg’s enormous spending as a relatively important factor in the race, and in other simulations, it gives it very little weight,” “This reflects the fact that the evidence is quite mixed on how self-financed candidates do as compared with candidates who raise money from individual donors” External link

independent-UK Wednesday, February 12, 2020 5:53:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver admitted : “My take on Biden is that 4th place is bad,” “There are no good scenarios when three candidates finish ahead of you. However, he’s been pretty resilient to setbacks so far and given his position in national polls he has a fair bit of runway (NH, NV, SC) to make a comeback. To put it another way, while from an actuarial perspective Biden’s chances of winning the nomination have substantially decreased, he still ‘controls his own destiny.’ If there’s a Biden coalition out there, he ought to be capable of finding it in one of the next 3 states” External link

thenation Wednesday, February 5, 2020 6:57:00 PM EAT

Nate Silver said : "Not everything I tweet is meant to be taken literally; a lot is sarcastic, contextual, trollish, etc., or is spitballing ideas in real-time," "But I can't really expect you all to know which things are in which categories. So think I need to stick to more literal-minded tweets" External link

foxnews Tuesday, October 29, 2019 3:43:00 AM EAT

Nate Silver écrit ( about Hillary Rodham Clinton ) : «Je ne sais pas si j’ai besoin de vous le dire, mais Hillary Clinton sera probablement la prochaine présidente» External link

lactualite Friday, October 21, 2016 2:55:00 AM EAT



Key Titles and Phrases Count Lang Last Seen
forecaster22.63%EN10/29/201729/10/2017
analyst14.40%EN07/19/201719/07/2017
journalist13.17%EN06/15/201715/06/2017
founder7.41%EN06/15/201715/06/2017
editor13.99%EN04/24/201724/04/2017
analista2.88%PT02/02/201702/02/2017
political analyst2.88%EN12/17/201617/12/2016
expert4.12%EN12/16/201616/12/2016
political forecaster1.23%EN11/12/201612/11/2016
star1.23%FR11/09/201609/11/2016
patron0.82%FR11/09/201609/11/2016
journaliste0.41%FR11/09/201609/11/2016
famous journalist0.41%EN11/09/201609/11/2016
editor in chief2.06%EN11/07/201607/11/2016
chief1.23%EN11/07/201607/11/2016
auteur0.82%FR11/07/201607/11/2016
autor0.41%PT11/06/201606/11/2016
head0.41%EN11/02/201602/11/2016
especialista0.82%PT10/21/201621/10/2016
editor0.41%ES10/14/201614/10/2016
rédacteur en chef0.41%FR10/12/201612/10/2016
grand maître0.41%FR10/01/201601/10/2016
politologue0.41%FR09/27/201627/09/2016
colleague0.82%EN08/08/201608/08/2016
designer0.41%EN07/18/201618/07/2016
vedette4.53%FR08/21/201321/08/2013
genio1.23%ES12/13/201213/12/2012
Names Lang Count
Nate SilverEN66.67%
Nate SilverFR14.11%
Nate SilverPT10.48%
Nate SilverES4.17%
Nate SilverDA4.03%
Nate SilversEN0.34%
Nate SilverPL0.13%
Nate SilverSW0.07%


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